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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 67

Denver Broncos 27 – Seattle Seahawks 24

What Actually Happened

(5:14) 1-M.King punts 49 yards to SEA 18, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 22 for 4 yards (81-T.Patrick).

The Three Options

GO -0.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.32 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 67, worth -3.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.95 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 25, worth -0.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model