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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 11 at the 24

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(11:47) 9-R.Gould 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.47 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.92 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24, worth -1.21 EP
KICK +1.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 34, worth -1.94 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model