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San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
@
MIN Home

Minnesota Vikings

HC Mike Zimmer
Sunday 2018-09-09 · 13:00 U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 6.0 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

SF
48.0%
MIN
52.0%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to SF: Kirk Cousins (MIN) -0.009 vs Jimmy Garoppolo (SF) +0.347 EPA/dropback
  • MIN defense: -0.131 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • SF offense: +0.043 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

SF 23
–
MIN 25
Projected margin: MIN by 2 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

SF

Erik Magnuson T Out Hamstring
Dekoda Watson LB Out Hamstring
Malcolm Smith LB Doubtful Hamstring

MIN

Aviante Collins T Out Elbow
Pat Elflein C Out Ankle
Roc Thomas RB Out Ankle
Mackensie Alexander CB Doubtful Ankle
Xavier Rhodes CB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SF 16
–
MIN 24

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:00 FG MIN (4:00) 7-D.Carlson 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-6-M.Wile. SF 0 – MIN 3
  • Q2 13:44 TD MIN (13:44) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 14-S.Diggs for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 0 – MIN 9
  • Q2 11:47 FG SF (11:47) 9-R.Gould 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. SF 3 – MIN 10
  • Q3 10:48 TD MIN (10:48) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right intended for 84-K.Bourne INTERCEPTED by 21-M.Hughes at SF 28. 21-M.Hughes for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 3 – MIN 16
  • Q3 09:18 FG SF (9:18) 9-R.Gould 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. SF 6 – MIN 17
  • Q3 04:27 TD MIN (4:27) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 82-K.Rudolph for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 6 – MIN 23
  • Q3 00:40 TD SF (:40) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep left to 18-D.Pettis for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 12 – MIN 24
  • Q4 08:13 FG SF (8:13) 9-R.Gould 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. SF 16 – MIN 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 14 at the 38
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 61%

    (9:36) 6-M.Wile punts 34 yards to SF 4, Center-47-K.McDermott, downed by MIN-21-M.Hughes.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 7 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (7:23) 5-B.Pinion punts 48 yards to MIN 30, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 6 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 78%

    (4:00) 7-D.Carlson 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-6-M.Wile.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (1:20) 5-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to MIN 39, Center-86-K.Nelson. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 47 for 8 yards (88-G.Celek).

  • Q2 SF 4th & 11 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 87%

    (11:47) 9-R.Gould 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (14:24) 5-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to MIN 31, Center-86-K.Nelson. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 30 for -1 yards (31-R.Mostert).

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 19 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (11:23) 6-M.Wile punts 47 yards to SF 18, Center-47-K.McDermott. 18-D.Pettis MUFFS catch, recovered by SF-23-A.Witherspoon at SF 18. 23-A.Witherspoon to SF 18 for no gain (24-H.Hill).

  • Q3 SF 4th & 6 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 94%

    (9:18) 9-R.Gould 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (14:56) 6-M.Wile punts 56 yards to SF 17, Center-47-K.McDermott. 18-D.Pettis pushed ob at SF 31 for 14 yards (42-B.Gedeon).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 11 at the 39
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 59%

    (13:54) 6-M.Wile punts 25 yards to SF 14, Center-47-K.McDermott, downed by MIN-50-E.Wilson.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 98%

    (8:13) 9-R.Gould 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (7:16) 6-M.Wile punts 29 yards to SF 45, Center-47-K.McDermott, out of bounds.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 15 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (5:54) 5-B.Pinion punts 42 yards to MIN 18, Center-86-K.Nelson. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 18 for no gain (31-R.Mostert).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 6 at the 50 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 32%

    (1:56) 6-M.Wile punts 39 yards to SF 11, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 18-D.Pettis.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 4 at the 9 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +2.13 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 97%

    (:02) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short right.