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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 6 at the 15

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Minnesota Vikings 17

What Actually Happened

(9:18) 9-R.Gould 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.36 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.29 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 15, worth -0.78 EP
KICK +1.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25, worth -1.38 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model