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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 14 at the 38

Minnesota Vikings 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:36) 6-M.Wile punts 34 yards to SF 4, Center-47-K.McDermott, downed by MIN-21-M.Hughes.

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.70 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 38, worth -1.65 EP
KICK +0.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT +0.22 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.34 EP