4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 11 at the 39

Minnesota Vikings 24 – San Francisco 49ers 13

What Actually Happened

(13:54) 6-M.Wile punts 25 yards to SF 14, Center-47-K.McDermott, downed by MIN-50-E.Wilson.

The Three Options

GO +0.22 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.31 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 39, worth -1.49 EP
KICK +0.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.51 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.27 EP
PUNT +0.40 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model