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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 4

San Francisco 49ers 13 – Minnesota Vikings 24

What Actually Happened

(8:13) 9-R.Gould 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +2.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.63 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 4, worth -0.06 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -1.07 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP