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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 50

Minnesota Vikings 24 – San Francisco 49ers 16

What Actually Happened

(1:56) 6-M.Wile punts 39 yards to SF 11, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 18-D.Pettis.

The Three Options

GO -0.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +1.58 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 50, worth -1.85 EP
KICK -0.61 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.85 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model