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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 30

Minnesota Vikings 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(4:00) 7-D.Carlson 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-6-M.Wile.

The Three Options

GO +1.08 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.61 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.04 EP
KICK +1.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.77 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model