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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 15 at the 80

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(1:20) 5-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to MIN 39, Center-86-K.Nelson. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 47 for 8 yards (88-G.Celek).

The Three Options

GO -2.91 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 80, worth -4.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 37, worth -2.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model