Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 8 at the 73

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Washington Commanders 14

What Actually Happened

(3:27) 2-A.Lee punts 56 yards to WAS 17, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 14-T.Quinn. PENALTY on WAS-20-R.Kelley, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at WAS 17.

The Three Options

GO -1.87 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.79 EP
65% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 73, worth -3.82 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model