4TH&DATA
EN ES
Home
WAS Away

Washington Commanders

1-0 HC Jay Gruden
@
ARI Home

Arizona Cardinals

0-1 HC Steve Wilks
Sunday 2018-09-09 · 16:25 ET State Farm Stadium, Glendale US 🏟 Dome Spread 2.0 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

WAS
33.5%
ARI
66.5%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • WAS offense: -0.160 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • ARI defense: -0.197 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • ARI offense: -0.163 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • WAS defense: -0.085 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • Alex Smith (WAS): +0.159 EPA/dropback in prior starts

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

WAS 20 13–27
–
ARI 24 17–31
Projected margin: ARI by 4 Projected total: 44

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 1

WAS

Maurice Harris WR Out Concussion

ARI

Markus Golden DE Out Knee
Jermaine Gresham TE Questionable Achilles
T.J. Logan RB Questionable Ankle
Robert Nkemdiche DT Questionable Foot
Olsen Pierre DT Questionable Toe

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

WAS 24
–
ARI 6

Prediction missed by 22 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 15:00 TD WAS (15:00) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short left to 25-C.Thompson for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN [90-R.Nkemdiche]. WAS 6 – ARI 0
  • Q2 04:12 TD WAS (4:12) 79-T.Nsekhe and 52-R.Anderson reported in as eligible. 26-A.Peterson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 13 – ARI 0
  • Q2 00:12 TD WAS (:12) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short right to 86-J.Reed for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 20 – ARI 0
  • Q4 12:16 FG WAS (12:16) 3-D.Hopkins 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 24 – ARI 0
  • Q4 05:51 TD ARI (5:51) 31-D.Johnson up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 24 – ARI 6

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 1 at the 60
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP
    p(convert) 67%

    (5:57) 2-A.Lee punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-46-A.Brewer, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 ARI 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (13:27) 2-A.Lee punts 57 yards to WAS 15, Center-46-A.Brewer. 14-T.Quinn to WAS 27 for 12 yards (32-D.Coleman).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 WAS 4th & 1 at the 50
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 32%

    (9:18) 11-A.Smith up the middle to ARI 49 for 1 yard (98-C.Peters).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 ARI 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (3:27) 2-A.Lee punts 56 yards to WAS 17, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 14-T.Quinn. PENALTY on WAS-20-R.Kelley, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at WAS 17.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 ARI 4th & 3 at the 41
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 54%

    (12:59) 2-A.Lee punts 33 yards to WAS 8, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 14-T.Quinn.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 WAS 4th & 14 at the 96
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (12:20) 5-T.Way punts 55 yards to ARI 41, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 13-C.Kirk to ARI 42 for 1 yard (40-J.Harvey-Clemons). PENALTY on ARI-33-T.Boston, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 41.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 ARI 4th & 11 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (11:18) 2-A.Lee punts 57 yards to WAS 13, Center-46-A.Brewer. 14-T.Quinn to WAS 25 for 12 yards (23-B.Benwikere). WAS-14-T.Quinn was injured during the play. Penalty on WAS-30-T.Apke, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined. PENALTY on WAS-31-F.Moreau, Unnecessary Roughness, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 13.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 WAS 4th & 15 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 34%

    (4:27) 5-T.Way punts 34 yards to ARI 15, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 13-C.Kirk.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 WAS 4th & 6 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 95%

    (12:16) 3-D.Hopkins 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 WAS 4th & 5 at the 89 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (4:48) 5-T.Way punts 59 yards to ARI 30, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 13-C.Kirk to WAS 26 for 44 yards (30-T.Apke).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 ARI 4th & 7 at the 7 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.75 EP
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 98%

    (3:26) (Shotgun) 9-S.Bradford pass incomplete short right to 86-R.Seals-Jones.

    See the full breakdown →