Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 11 at the 70

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Washington Commanders 21

What Actually Happened

(11:18) 2-A.Lee punts 57 yards to WAS 13, Center-46-A.Brewer. 14-T.Quinn to WAS 25 for 12 yards (23-B.Benwikere). WAS-14-T.Quinn was injured during the play. Penalty on WAS-30-T.Apke, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined. PENALTY on WAS-31-F.Moreau, Unnecessary Roughness, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 13.

The Three Options

GO -2.13 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.18 EP
70% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 70, worth -3.95 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model