4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 7 at the 72

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(13:27) 2-A.Lee punts 57 yards to WAS 15, Center-46-A.Brewer. 14-T.Quinn to WAS 27 for 12 yards (32-D.Coleman).

The Three Options

GO -1.73 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.13 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 72, worth -3.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 30, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model