Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 16 at the 75

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(12:37) 10-K.Huber punts 55 yards to BAL 20, Center-46-C.Harris. 84-J.Grant to BAL 22 for 2 yards (29-T.McRae; 42-C.Fejedelem). FUMBLES (29-T.McRae), recovered by BAL-25-T.Young at BAL 18. 25-T.Young to BAL 18 for no gain (57-V.Rey).

The Three Options

GO -2.40 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.63 EP
74% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 75, worth -4.17 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model