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Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
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Cincinnati Bengals

HC Marvin Lewis
Thursday 2018-09-13 · 20:20 Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati US ☀️ Clear Spread 1.0 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

BAL
53.1%
CIN
46.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BAL offense: +0.049 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • BAL defense: -0.187 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • CIN offense: -0.039 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)
  • QB edge to CIN: Andy Dalton (CIN) -0.037 vs Joe Flacco (BAL) -0.058 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

BAL 24
–
CIN 21
Projected margin: BAL by 3 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

BAL

Maurice Canady CB Out Thigh
Kenneth Dixon RB Out Knee
Willie Henry DT Out Abdomen
Hayden Hurst TE Out Foot
Janarion Grant WR Questionable Hand

CIN

Cody Core WR Doubtful Back
Preston Brown LB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BAL 23
–
CIN 34

Prediction missed by 14 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:40 TD CIN (10:40) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 18-A.Green for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 0 – CIN 6
  • Q1 06:33 TD CIN (6:33) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 18-A.Green for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN [48-P.Onwuasor]. BAL 0 – CIN 13
  • Q2 13:07 TD CIN (13:07) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 18-A.Green for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 0 – CIN 20
  • Q2 08:25 TD BAL (8:25) 37-J.Allen right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 6 – CIN 21
  • Q2 03:04 TD CIN (3:04) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 83-T.Boyd for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 7 – CIN 27
  • Q2 00:12 TD BAL (:12) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 89-M.Andrews for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 13 – CIN 28
  • Q3 12:35 FG BAL (12:35) 9-J.Tucker 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 17 – CIN 28
  • Q4 09:41 TD BAL (9:41) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass deep right to 13-J.Brown for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 23 – CIN 28
  • Q4 03:03 FG CIN (3:03) 4-R.Bullock 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. BAL 23 – CIN 31
  • Q4 02:29 FG CIN (2:29) 4-R.Bullock 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. BAL 23 – CIN 34

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (13:37) 4-S.Koch punts 55 yards to CIN 20, Center-46-M.Cox. 23-D.Phillips MUFFS catch, and recovers at CIN 15. 23-D.Phillips to CIN 31 for 16 yards (37-J.Allen).

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 16 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (12:37) 10-K.Huber punts 55 yards to BAL 20, Center-46-C.Harris. 84-J.Grant to BAL 22 for 2 yards (29-T.McRae; 42-C.Fejedelem). FUMBLES (29-T.McRae), recovered by BAL-25-T.Young at BAL 18. 25-T.Young to BAL 18 for no gain (57-V.Rey).

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 7 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 29%

    (8:17) 4-S.Koch punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 14 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (4:06) 4-S.Koch punts 59 yards to CIN 20, Center-46-M.Cox. 23-D.Phillips to CIN 28 for 8 yards (40-K.Young).

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 4 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 59%

    (1:25) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass incomplete short left to 83-W.Snead IV.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 10 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (1:08) 10-K.Huber punts 43 yards to BAL 19, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 84-J.Grant.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 20 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23%

    (13:44) 10-K.Huber punts 34 yards to BAL 35, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-42-C.Fejedelem.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 7 at the 37
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 62%

    (12:35) 9-J.Tucker 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 12 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (9:17) 10-K.Huber punts 44 yards to BAL 21, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 84-J.Grant.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 2 at the 44
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 44%

    (6:45) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short middle to 37-J.Allen to CIN 43 for 1 yard (21-D.Dennard) [96-C.Dunlap].

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 8 at the 37
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 62%

    (4:44) 10-K.Huber punts 28 yards to BAL 9, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-50-J.Evans.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 2 at the 50
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 29%

    (14:56) 10-K.Huber punts 37 yards to BAL 13, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 84-J.Grant.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 4 at the 10 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 96%

    (3:03) 4-R.Bullock 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 3 at the 22 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 89%

    (2:29) 4-R.Bullock 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 3 at the 53 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 23%

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 89-M.Andrews to CIN 48 for 5 yards (56-H.Nickerson).

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 8 at the 23 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +2.05 EP
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 88%

    (:08) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short middle to 83-W.Snead IV to CIN 12 for 11 yards (94-S.Hubbard).