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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 7 at the 37

Baltimore Ravens 14 – Cincinnati Bengals 28

What Actually Happened

(12:35) 9-J.Tucker 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.93 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 37, worth -2.16 EP
KICK -0.05 EP
What Happened
  • 62% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 46, worth -2.82 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model