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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 8 at the 37

Cincinnati Bengals 28 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(4:44) 10-K.Huber punts 28 yards to BAL 9, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-50-J.Evans.

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.06 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 37, worth -1.89 EP
KICK +0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 46, worth -2.64 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.33 EP