4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 3 at the 53

Baltimore Ravens 23 – Cincinnati Bengals 34

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 89-M.Andrews to CIN 48 for 5 yards (56-H.Nickerson).

The Three Options

GO +0.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.19 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 53, worth -0.76 EP
KICK +0.03 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.54 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -0.73 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 15, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model