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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 3 at the 36

Carolina Panthers 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(11:40) 9-G.Gano 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +0.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.68 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 36, worth -2.35 EP
KICK -0.02 EP
What Happened
  • 66% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 46, worth -3.05 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP