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Carolina Panthers

HC Ron Rivera
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ATL Home

Atlanta Falcons

HC Dan Quinn
Sunday 2018-09-16 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta US 🏟 Dome Spread 5.5 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

CAR
43.0%
ATL
57.0%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to ATL: Matt Ryan (ATL) +0.106 vs Cam Newton (CAR) -0.018 EPA/dropback
  • ATL offense: -0.056 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • ATL on 3 more days rest than CAR

Predicted Final Score

CAR 22
–
ATL 23
Projected margin: ATL by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

CAR

Damiere Byrd WR Out Knee
Greg Olsen TE Out Foot
Curtis Samuel WR Out Medical Illness
Trai Turner G Out Concussion

ATL

Devonta Freeman RB Out Knee
Russell Gage WR Out Knee
Ben Garland G Out Calf
Isaiah Oliver CB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CAR 24
–
ATL 31

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:40 FG CAR (11:40) 9-G.Gano 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. CAR 3 – ATL 0
  • Q1 05:46 FG ATL (5:46) 3-M.Bryant 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. CAR 3 – ATL 3
  • Q2 08:50 TD CAR (8:50) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short middle to 13-J.Wright for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 9 – ATL 3
  • Q2 04:08 TD ATL (4:08) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 18-C.Ridley for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 10 – ATL 9
  • Q2 00:28 TD ATL (:28) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 81-A.Hooper for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 10 – ATL 16
  • Q3 09:44 TD ATL (9:44) 2-M.Ryan right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 10 – ATL 23
  • Q4 11:27 TD CAR (11:27) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short middle to 11-T.Smith for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 16 – ATL 24
  • Q4 07:27 TD ATL (7:27) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan scrambles left end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 17 – ATL 30
  • Q4 02:30 TD CAR (2:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep middle to 12-D.Moore for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 23 – ATL 31

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 3 at the 36
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 66%

    (11:40) 9-G.Gano 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 5 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 84%

    (5:46) 3-M.Bryant 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 20 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (3:24) 5-M.Palardy punts 53 yards to ATL 32, Center-44-J.Jansen. 14-J.Hardy to ATL 37 for 5 yards (53-B.Jacobs). PENALTY on ATL-29-J.Richards, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 35.

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 11 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (:18) 5-M.Bosher punts 39 yards to CAR 25, Center-47-J.Harris. 12-D.Moore to CAR 30 for 5 yards (28-J.Bethel).

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 4 at the 33
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 73%

    (12:22) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton scrambles left end to ATL 23 for 10 yards (27-D.Kazee). Penalty on ATL-27-D.Kazee, Disqualification, offsetting. Penalty on CAR-11-T.Smith, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 14 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (1:52) 5-M.Palardy punts 53 yards to ATL 15, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-31-L.Doss. Penalty on ATL-28-J.Bethel, Defensive Offside, declined.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 2 at the 90
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (12:57) 5-M.Palardy punts 48 yards to ATL 42, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 14-J.Hardy.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 12 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 39%

    (5:43) 5-M.Palardy punts 37 yards to ATL 10, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 14-J.Hardy.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 4 at the 42
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 51%

    (1:53) 5-M.Bosher punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Harris, Touchback.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 5 at the 48 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 36%

    (4:10) 5-M.Bosher punts 44 yards to CAR 4, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by ATL-28-J.Bethel.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 1 at the 66 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (2:00) 5-M.Bosher punts 54 yards to CAR 12, Center-47-J.Harris. 12-D.Moore to CAR 16 for 4 yards (28-J.Bethel).