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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 90

Carolina Panthers 10 – Atlanta Falcons 17

What Actually Happened

(12:57) 5-M.Palardy punts 48 yards to ATL 42, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 14-J.Hardy.

The Three Options

GO -1.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth +0.22 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 90, worth -5.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.91 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 47, worth -2.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EP