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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 66

Atlanta Falcons 31 – Carolina Panthers 24

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 5-M.Bosher punts 54 yards to CAR 12, Center-47-J.Harris. 12-D.Moore to CAR 16 for 4 yards (28-J.Bethel).

The Three Options

GO -0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.97 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 66, worth -2.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 24, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP