Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 11 at the 64

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Carolina Panthers 3

(:18) 5-M.Bosher punts 39 yards to CAR 25, Center-47-J.Harris. 12-D.Moore to CAR 30 for 5 yards (28-J.Bethel).

The Three Options

GO -1.44 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.84 EP
68% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 64, worth -3.42 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model