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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 4 at the 33

Carolina Panthers 3 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(12:22) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton scrambles left end to ATL 23 for 10 yards (27-D.Kazee). Penalty on ATL-27-D.Kazee, Disqualification, offsetting. Penalty on CAR-11-T.Smith, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting.

The Three Options

GO +0.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.91 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 33, worth -1.85 EP
KICK +0.54 EP
  • 73% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 43, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model