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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 63

San Francisco 49ers 10 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(8:14) 5-B.Pinion punts 44 yards to DET 19, Center-86-K.Nelson. 39-J.Agnew to DET 19 for no gain (31-R.Mostert).

The Three Options

GO -0.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.09 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 63, worth -3.55 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.12 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 21, worth -1.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP