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Detroit Lions

HC Matt Patricia
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SF Home

San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
Sunday 2018-09-16 · 16:05 Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara US ☀️ Clear Spread 6.0 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

DET
33.0%
SF
67.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Jimmy Garoppolo (SF): +0.254 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • SF offense: +0.056 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • DET offense: -0.034 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
  • SF defense: -0.043 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (13th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DET 20
–
SF 25
Projected margin: SF by 5 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

DET

Andrew Donnal T Out Knee
T.J. Lang G Out Back
Ezekiel Ansah DE Questionable Shoulder
LeGarrette Blount RB Questionable Shoulder

SF

Joshua Garnett G Out Toe
Marquise Goodwin WR Out Quadricep
Erik Magnuson C Out Hamstring
Adrian Colbert S Questionable Hamstring
Mike Person G Questionable Foot
Malcolm Smith LB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DET 27
–
SF 30

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:22 FG SF (6:22) 9-R.Gould 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. DET 0 – SF 3
  • Q1 02:52 TD DET (2:52) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 19-K.Golladay for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SF 15. 15-YAC The Replay Official reviewed the runner was inbounds ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed. DET 6 – SF 3
  • Q2 12:10 TD SF (12:10) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left to 84-K.Bourne for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at DET 4. 4-YAC DET 7 – SF 9
  • Q2 05:00 FG SF (5:00) 9-R.Gould 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. DET 7 – SF 13
  • Q2 00:06 FG DET (:06) 5-M.Prater 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. DET 10 – SF 13
  • Q3 13:22 TD SF (13:22) (No Huddle) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 88-G.Celek for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at DET 5. 5-YAC DET 10 – SF 19
  • Q3 08:50 FG DET (8:50) 5-M.Prater 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. DET 13 – SF 20
  • Q3 01:06 TD SF (1:06) 22-M.Breida right tackle for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 13 – SF 26
  • Q4 11:25 FG SF (11:25) 9-R.Gould 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. DET 13 – SF 30
  • Q4 08:40 TD DET (8:40) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 11-M.Jones for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 19 – SF 30
  • Q4 03:33 TD DET (3:33) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 80-M.Roberts for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 26 – SF 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DET 4th & 2 at the 48
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 27%

    (10:58) 6-S.Martin punts 38 yards to SF 10, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 81-T.Taylor.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 53%

    (10:39) 6-S.Martin punts 43 yards to SF 25, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 18-D.Pettis to SF 37 for 12 yards (32-T.Wilson). PENALTY on SF-32-D.Reed, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SF 25.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 4 at the 63
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP
    p(convert) 50%

    (8:14) 5-B.Pinion punts 44 yards to DET 19, Center-86-K.Nelson. 39-J.Agnew to DET 19 for no gain (31-R.Mostert).

  • Q2 SF 4th & 18 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 84%

    (5:00) 9-R.Gould 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 2 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (2:00) 6-S.Martin punts 42 yards to SF 13, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 81-T.Taylor.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 19 at the 96
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (1:01) 5-B.Pinion punts 59 yards to DET 37, Center-86-K.Nelson. 39-J.Agnew to DET 44 for 7 yards (88-G.Celek). PENALTY on DET-44-J.Reeves-Maybin, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DET 44.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 2 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 96%

    (:06) 5-M.Prater 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 17 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 82%

    (8:50) 5-M.Prater 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 7 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 34%

    (5:55) 5-B.Pinion punts 31 yards to DET 14, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 6 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 29%

    (2:16) 6-S.Martin punts 44 yards to SF 3, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-45-Ch.Washington.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 8 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (14:54) 6-S.Martin punts 44 yards to SF 33, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 18-D.Pettis to SF 47 for 14 yards (43-N.Bellore).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 10 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 91%

    (11:25) 9-R.Gould 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (6:31) 5-B.Pinion punts 49 yards to DET 27, Center-86-K.Nelson. 39-J.Agnew for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. Penalty on DET-47-T.Walker, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined. PENALTY on DET-43-N.Bellore, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DET 31. Agnew credited with a 4-yd. return.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 18 at the 60 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (1:16) 5-B.Pinion punts 44 yards to DET 16, Center-86-K.Nelson. 39-J.Agnew ran ob at DET 16 for no gain.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 2 at the 61 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59%

    (:21) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short left to 25-T.Riddick.