Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 19 at the 96

San Francisco 49ers 13 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(1:01) 5-B.Pinion punts 59 yards to DET 37, Center-86-K.Nelson. 39-J.Agnew to DET 44 for 7 yards (88-G.Celek). PENALTY on DET-44-J.Reeves-Maybin, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DET 44.

The Three Options

GO -3.87 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.70 EP
71% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 96, worth -5.77 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (113 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model