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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 48

Detroit Lions 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:58) 6-S.Martin punts 38 yards to SF 10, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 81-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO +0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.72 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.84 EP
KICK -1.62 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.90 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP