4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 7 at the 45

San Francisco 49ers 20 – Detroit Lions 13

What Actually Happened

(5:55) 5-B.Pinion punts 31 yards to DET 14, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.43 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 45, worth -2.14 EP
KICK -1.01 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 12, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model