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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 47

Detroit Lions 13 – San Francisco 49ers 20

What Actually Happened

(2:16) 6-S.Martin punts 44 yards to SF 3, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-45-Ch.Washington.

The Three Options

GO -0.33 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.12 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.51 EP
KICK -1.31 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model