Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 8 at the 77

Detroit Lions 13 – San Francisco 49ers 27

(14:54) 6-S.Martin punts 44 yards to SF 33, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 18-D.Pettis to SF 47 for 14 yards (43-N.Bellore).

The Three Options

GO -2.23 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.37 EP
62% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 77, worth -4.43 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model