Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 11 at the 76

San Francisco 49ers 30 – Detroit Lions 20

What Actually Happened

(6:31) 5-B.Pinion punts 49 yards to DET 27, Center-86-K.Nelson. 39-J.Agnew for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. Penalty on DET-47-T.Walker, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined. PENALTY on DET-43-N.Bellore, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DET 31. Agnew credited with a 4-yd. return.

The Three Options

GO -2.31 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.37 EP
65% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 76, worth -4.31 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model