Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 12 at the 59

Kansas City Chiefs 21 – Pittsburgh Steelers 13

What Actually Happened

(3:10) (Punt formation) 2-D.Colquitt punts 45 yards to PIT 14, Center-41-J.Winchester. 10-R.Switzer to PIT 20 for 6 yards (26-Dam. Williams). PENALTY on PIT-44-T.Matakevich, Illegal Blindside Block, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 20.

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.61 EP
67% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 59, worth -3.31 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model