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Kansas City Chiefs

2-0 HC Andy Reid
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Pittsburgh Steelers

0-1-1 HC Mike Tomlin
Sunday 2018-09-16 · 13:00 ET Heinz Field, Pittsburgh US ☀️ Clear Spread 4.5 O/U 52.0

Win Probability

KC
41.5%
PIT
58.5%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • PIT offense: +0.109 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • KC offense: +0.089 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • PIT defense: +0.089 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • KC defense: -0.007 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
  • QB edge to KC: Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) +0.219 vs Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.318 EPA/dropback

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

KC 23 16–30
–
PIT 25 18–32
Projected margin: PIT by 2 Projected total: 48

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 2

KC

Ben Niemann LB Out Hamstring
Eric Berry S Doubtful Heel

PIT

David DeCastro G Doubtful Hand
Joe Haden CB Doubtful Hamstring
Tyson Alualu DE Doubtful Shoulder
Cameron Heyward DT Questionable Knee
Vance McDonald TE Questionable Foot
Ben Roethlisberger QB Questionable right Elbow
Artie Burns CB Questionable Toe

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

KC 42
–
PIT 37

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 31 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 13:10 TD KC (13:10) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 17-C.Conley for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 6 – PIT 0
  • Q1 09:13 TD KC (9:13) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 87-T.Kelce for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 13 – PIT 0
  • Q1 02:29 TD KC (2:29) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 27-K.Hunt for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 20 – PIT 0
  • Q2 14:30 TD PIT (14:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep left to 81-J.James for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 21 – PIT 6
  • Q2 06:31 TD PIT (6:31) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 19-J.Smith-Schuster for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 21 – PIT 13
  • Q2 00:24 TD PIT (:24) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 13-J.Washington for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC-20-S.Nelson was injured during the play. KC 21 – PIT 19
  • Q3 12:47 TD KC (12:47) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 87-T.Kelce for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 27 – PIT 21
  • Q3 07:18 TD PIT (7:18) 30-J.Conner left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. KC 28 – PIT 27
  • Q3 03:19 TD KC (3:19) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short right to 11-D.Robinson. Kansas City challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 11-D.Robinson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 34 – PIT 28
  • Q4 13:47 TD KC (13:47) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 10-T.Hill for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-C.Heyward]. Penalty on PIT-42-M.Burnett, Defensive Holding, declined. KC 41 – PIT 28
  • Q4 12:09 SAF PIT (12:09) 27-K.Hunt up the middle tackled in End Zone for -1 yards, SAFETY (25-A.Burns, 42-M.Burnett). KC 42 – PIT 30
  • Q4 02:08 TD PIT (2:08) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger scrambles right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 42 – PIT 36

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 12 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (14:22) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 39 yards to KC 42, Center-57-K.Canaday. 13-D.Thomas to PIT 27 for 31 yards (20-C.Sutton). FUMBLES (20-C.Sutton), and recovers at PIT 22. 13-D.Thomas to PIT 10 for 12 yards (34-T.Edmunds).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 PIT 4th & 13 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (11:48) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 39 yards to KC 39, Center-57-K.Canaday. 10-T.Hill ran ob at KC 39 for no gain (44-T.Matakevich). Penalty on KC-26-Dam. Williams, Offensive Holding, declined. PENALTY on KC-84-D.Harris, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at KC 39.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 PIT 4th & 5 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 72%

    (5:09) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 KC 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (12:16) (Punt formation) 2-D.Colquitt punts 55 yards to PIT 15, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 KC 4th & 12 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (3:10) (Punt formation) 2-D.Colquitt punts 45 yards to PIT 14, Center-41-J.Winchester. 10-R.Switzer to PIT 20 for 6 yards (26-Dam. Williams). PENALTY on PIT-44-T.Matakevich, Illegal Blindside Block, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 20.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 PIT 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56%

    (1:54) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 33 yards to KC 35, Center-57-K.Canaday, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 PIT 4th & 8 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (12:23) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 59 yards to KC 1, Center-57-K.Canaday, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 PIT 4th & 7 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (9:24) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-57-K.Canaday, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 PIT 4th & 3 at the 13 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 95%

    (4:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 19-J.Smith-Schuster to KC 6 for 7 yards (20-S.Nelson).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 PIT 4th & 3 at the 3 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 98%

    (2:08) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger scrambles right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    See the full breakdown →