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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 68

Pittsburgh Steelers 28 – Kansas City Chiefs 35

What Actually Happened

(1:54) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 33 yards to KC 35, Center-57-K.Canaday, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.91 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 68, worth -3.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 26, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model