Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 13 at the 78

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(11:48) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 39 yards to KC 39, Center-57-K.Canaday. 10-T.Hill ran ob at KC 39 for no gain (44-T.Matakevich). Penalty on KC-26-Dam. Williams, Offensive Holding, declined. PENALTY on KC-84-D.Harris, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at KC 39.

The Three Options

GO -2.23 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.13 EP
67% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 78, worth -4.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model