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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 13

Pittsburgh Steelers 30 – Kansas City Chiefs 42

What Actually Happened

(4:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 19-J.Smith-Schuster to KC 6 for 7 yards (20-S.Nelson).

The Three Options

GO +2.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.17 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 13, worth -0.16 EP
KICK +2.14 EP
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 23, worth -0.56 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model