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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 3

Pittsburgh Steelers 30 – Kansas City Chiefs 42

What Actually Happened

(2:08) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger scrambles right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +2.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.02 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 3, worth -0.14 EP
KICK +2.02 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -0.71 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model