4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 31

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 14

What Actually Happened

(5:09) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +1.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.54 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 31, worth -1.03 EP
KICK +1.17 EP
What Happened
  • 72% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 41, worth -1.75 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model