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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 13 at the 24

Buffalo Bills 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 14

What Actually Happened

(13:42) 4-S.Hauschka 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +0.64 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.18 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24, worth -0.68 EP
KICK +1.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.44 EP
PUNT +0.12 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model