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LAC Away

Los Angeles Chargers

HC Anthony Lynn
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BUF Home

Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
Sunday 2018-09-16 · 13:00 New Era Field, Orchard Park US ☀️ Clear Spread -7.5 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

LAC
74.7%
BUF
25.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LAC offense: +0.155 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • QB edge to LAC: Josh Allen (BUF) -0.217 vs Philip Rivers (LAC) +0.254 EPA/dropback (BUF starting Josh Allen in place of Nathan Peterman)
  • BUF offense: -0.173 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • LAC defense: -0.106 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • Josh Allen (BUF) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample

Predicted Final Score

LAC 25
–
BUF 16
Projected margin: LAC by 9 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

LAC

Joe Barksdale T Out Knee
Joey Bosa DE Out Foot
Craig Mager CB Out Hamstring
Travis Benjamin WR Questionable Foot

BUF

Taron Johnson CB Out Shoulder
Shaq Lawson DE Out Hamstring
Ray-Ray McCloud WR Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LAC 31
–
BUF 20

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:32 TD LAC (9:32) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle to 81-M.Williams for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-J.Hughes]. Caught in back of end zone. LAC 6 – BUF 0
  • Q1 04:24 TD LAC (4:24) 28-M.Gordon left tackle for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 13 – BUF 0
  • Q2 13:42 FG BUF (13:42) 4-S.Hauschka 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez. LAC 14 – BUF 3
  • Q2 10:49 TD LAC (10:49) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 28-M.Gordon for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at BUF 6, crossing from middle. LAC 20 – BUF 3
  • Q2 02:00 TD LAC (2:00) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 28-M.Gordon for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught in front corner of end zone. LAC 27 – BUF 3
  • Q2 00:52 FG BUF (:52) 4-S.Hauschka 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez. LAC 28 – BUF 6
  • Q3 11:08 TD BUF (11:08) 33-C.Ivory up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 28 – BUF 12
  • Q4 03:52 FG LAC (3:52) 6-C.Sturgis 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-8-D.Kaser. LAC 31 – BUF 13
  • Q4 00:42 TD BUF (:42) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 13-K.Benjamin for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught in back of end zone. LAC 31 – BUF 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.33 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (12:55) 8-D.Kaser punts 52 yards to BUF 14, Center-47-M.Windt, fair catch by 45-M.Murphy.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 10 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (11:03) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 44 yards to LAC 42, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 89-J.Jones to BUF 48 for 10 yards (18-A.Holmes). PENALTY on BUF-82-L.Thomas, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 48.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (7:53) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 42 yards to LAC 33, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 89-J.Jones to LAC 39 for 6 yards (82-L.Thomas).

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 13 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 86%

    (13:42) 4-S.Hauschka 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (8:57) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 50 yards to LAC 18, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 89-J.Jones to LAC 19 for 1 yard (50-R.Humber).

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 15 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 87%

    (:52) 4-S.Hauschka 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (9:08) 8-D.Kaser punts 58 yards to BUF 8, Center-47-M.Windt. 45-M.Murphy MUFFS catch, recovered by BUF-26-T.Jones at BUF 0. Touchback (42-U.Nwosu). BUF-26-T.Jones was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. Touchback due to penalty in end zone. T.Jones assisted to tunnel. PENALTY on LAC-42-U.Nwosu, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at BUF 20.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 10 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 39%

    (5:40) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 33 yards to LAC 12, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 89-J.Jones.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 16 at the 94
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (4:04) 8-D.Kaser punts 45 yards to BUF 49, Center-47-M.Windt. 45-M.Murphy MUFFS catch, and recovers at LAC 48. 45-M.Murphy to LAC 42 for 6 yards (31-A.Phillips; 48-N.Dzubnar).

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (:32) 8-D.Kaser punts 35 yards to BUF 34, Center-47-M.Windt, out of bounds.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 9 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (12:50) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback. Kick into end zone.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 8 at the 38
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 57%

    (7:25) 8-D.Kaser punts 35 yards to BUF 3, Center-47-M.Windt, downed by LAC-31-A.Phillips.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 5 at the 5 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 98%

    (3:52) 6-C.Sturgis 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-8-D.Kaser.