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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 66

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(12:55) 8-D.Kaser punts 52 yards to BUF 14, Center-47-M.Windt, fair catch by 45-M.Murphy.

The Three Options

GO -0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.34 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 66, worth -4.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.43 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 24, worth -1.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.33 EP