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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 15 at the 23

Buffalo Bills 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 28

What Actually Happened

(:52) 4-S.Hauschka 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +0.71 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.48 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 23, worth -0.54 EP
KICK +1.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.10 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model