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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 45

Buffalo Bills 13 – Los Angeles Chargers 28

What Actually Happened

(5:40) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 33 yards to LAC 12, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 89-J.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.27 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.75 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 45, worth -1.83 EP
KICK -0.49 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.54 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.39 EP
PUNT +0.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 12, worth +0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model