Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 9 at the 54

Buffalo Bills 13 – Los Angeles Chargers 28

(12:50) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback. Kick into end zone.

The Three Options

GO -0.84 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.93 EP
70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 54, worth -2.49 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model