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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 8 at the 38

Los Angeles Chargers 28 – Buffalo Bills 13

What Actually Happened

(7:25) 8-D.Kaser punts 35 yards to BUF 3, Center-47-M.Windt, downed by LAC-31-A.Phillips.

The Three Options

GO +0.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.74 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 38, worth -1.75 EP
KICK +0.04 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 47, worth -2.26 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP