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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 17 at the 82

New York Jets 0 – Miami Dolphins 14

What Actually Happened

(2:41) 4-L.Edwards punts 60 yards to MIA 22, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 19-J.Grant to MIA 38 for 16 yards (36-D.Middleton).

The Three Options

GO -3.02 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.59 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 82, worth -4.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 40, worth -1.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model