Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- MIA offense: -0.140 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
- Sam Darnold (NYJ): +0.317 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- NYJ offense: -0.112 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
- Sam Darnold (NYJ) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 2
MIA
NYJ
Pulled fresh for 2018 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 01:16 TD MIA (1:16) 32-K.Drake up the middle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 6 – NYJ 0
- Q2 04:19 TD MIA (4:19) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 15-A.Wilson for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 13 – NYJ 0
- Q2 00:46 TD MIA (:46) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep middle to 85-A.Derby for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 20 – NYJ 0
- Q3 11:58 TD NYJ (11:58) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 29-B.Powell for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on MIA-47-K.Alonso, Illegal Contact, declined. MIA 20 – NYJ 6
- Q4 10:11 FG NYJ (10:11) 2-J.Myers 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards. MIA 20 – NYJ 9
- Q4 06:00 FG NYJ (6:00) 2-J.Myers 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards. MIA 20 – NYJ 12
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 MIA 4th & 7 at the 52Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 24%
(12:34) 2-M.Haack punts 48 yards to NYJ 4, Center-92-J.Denney, out of bounds.
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Q1 NYJ 4th & 11 at the 86Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(9:17) 4-L.Edwards punts 46 yards to MIA 40, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 19-J.Grant.
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Q2 NYJ 4th & 13 at the 78Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(14:22) 4-L.Edwards punts 60 yards to MIA 18, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 19-J.Grant pushed ob at MIA 40 for 22 yards (23-T.Brooks).
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Q2 MIA 4th & 4 at the 54Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EPp(convert) 45%
(12:53) 2-M.Haack punts 37 yards to NYJ 17, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.
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Q2 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 59Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(11:07) 4-L.Edwards punts 41 yards to MIA 18, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.
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Q2 MIA 4th & 13 at the 52Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27% p(FG) 24%
(7:26) 2-M.Haack punts 44 yards to NYJ 8, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.
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Q2 NYJ 4th & 17 at the 82Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26%
(2:41) 4-L.Edwards punts 60 yards to MIA 22, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 19-J.Grant to MIA 38 for 16 yards (36-D.Middleton).
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Q3 MIA 4th & 1 at the 55Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.58 EPp(convert) 68%
(8:33) 2-M.Haack punts 48 yards to NYJ 7, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.
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Q3 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 51%
(5:29) 4-L.Edwards punts 56 yards to MIA 7, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 19-J.Grant to MIA 17 for 10 yards (42-T.Hennessy).
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Q4 MIA 4th & 10 at the 75Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(9:13) 2-M.Haack punts 55 yards to NYJ 20, Center-92-J.Denney. 19-A.Roberts to NYJ 24 for 4 yards (38-B.Bolden; 16-T.McEvoy). PENALTY on NYJ-17-C.Peake, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NYJ 24.
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Q4 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 23Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27% p(FG) 87%
(6:00) 2-J.Myers 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.