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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 55

Miami Dolphins 20 – New York Jets 6

What Actually Happened

(8:33) 2-M.Haack punts 48 yards to NYJ 7, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO +0.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.54 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 55, worth -3.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 16, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.58 EP